Mingtai Aluminum (601677): Performance exceeded expectations and continued high growth
Investment Highlights: Maintain Overweight rating.
The company’s performance in the first three quarters of 2019 exceeded expectations, mainly due to the obvious expansion of production and sales, high volume of high-end products and considerable non-recurring gains and losses.
It is expected that the subsequent heavy volume of high value-added products will become an endogenous profit growth point.
Affected by non-recurring gains and 武汉夜网论坛 losses, the EPS forecast for 2019 is raised to 1.
41 yuan (originally 1.
03 yuan), maintaining earnings per share forecast for 2020/20211.
53 yuan, maintaining a target price of 14.
52 yuan to maintain the overweight level.
The scale of production and sales expanded, and the performance was in line with expectations.
The company announced that the first three quarters of 2019 revenue / attributable net profit 104.
0 ppm, respectively +6 per year.
6% / + 77.
9%, deducting non-attribution net profit4.
600 million (+46.
3%), the performance exceeded expectations, mainly from: ① the production and sales of aluminum plate and foil expanded significantly, production and sales have exceeded 41 in the first half, that Q3 continues to increase volume, is expected to gradually increase production and sales will exceed 80 cases; ② deep processing products gradually increase volume: such as 2 initialThe cross-section has been officially put into production, and 94 car bodies were delivered in the first half of the year, which is expected to exceed 200 (about 140 in 2018).
③ The non-recurring profit and loss in the first three quarters is about 2.
40,000 yuan (including non-current assets disposal of about 2.
600 million, government subsidies1.
100 million) also contributed positively to performance.
The volume of high-end products will open up future profits.
We believe that the company’s subsequent profit growth will mainly come from: ① 2 the increase in the number of vehicles delivered by the transition rail profile project, the scale advantage will gradually become prominent, and the profit level will increase; ②12.
5 The initial automotive aluminum alloy plate project has been formally put into production in 2018, and it is expected to form a profit scale of about 1-1.
500 million US dollars; ③ battery foil and electronic foil of high-end aluminum foil products currently account for more than 20%, benefiting from the rapid development of the new 四川耍耍网 energy market in the future, the proportion of high-end products will continue to increase; ④ Gongdian’s thermal steam business is expected to contribute profit growth in 201950 million and expected to continue in the future.
Catalyst: Risk of accelerated heavy volume production of deep-processed products