Guizhou Moutai (600519): Brands and industries merge and solid business trends remain unchanged Maintain buy

Guizhou Moutai (600519): Brands and industries merge and solid business trends remain unchanged Maintain buy
Investment highlights: Event: The company recently announced its production and operation situation in 2019 and its 2020 plan. The media recently reported that Moutai Group held a 2020 work conference.According to the announcement and media reports, 1. In 2019, the operating income was about 88.5 billion yuan, an annual increase of about 15%, and the net profit of the mother was about 40.5 billion yuan, an increase of about 15%; 2. The production of Moutai base wine in 2019 was about 4.99 samples, about 2 wine-based wines.51 ;; 3. In 2020, it is planned that the annual growth rate of total operating income will be 10%. According to media reports, the Group’s expected work target in 2020 is 10% of revenue growth and 10% of net profit growth of the Group.  Investment Ratings and Estimates: Due to the announcement of performance indicators, we 天津夜网 adjusted our profit forecast to forecast a net profit of 40, 462, and 55.2 billion in 19-21 (previously 433, 529, and 60.1 billion), resulting in an increase of 15.9%, 13.3%, 19.3%, corresponding to an EPS of 32.5, 36.8, 43.9 yuan, corresponding to the PE of 19-21 years is 34x, 30x, 25x, maintain BUY rating.  Although the announced performance indicators are lower than our profit forecast for this industry, the brand indicators of Moutai are still stable, the market supply and demand relationship is still tight, corporate governance and operating trends continue to improve, and short-term changes do not change Moutai’s core competitiveness. We continue to be optimisticAnd recommend the company, the long-term value of the company has been shown after the previous forecast adjustment.  19Q4 is only short-term fluctuations in 2020 as the year of steady progress in infrastructure construction.The company’s revenue guidance for 2019 is 88.5 billion, and net profit attributable to mothers is 40.5 billion, which is an increase of about 15% every time. Estimated single-quarter revenue is 25 billion, which is an increase of 13% and net profit is 100.500 million, down 4% before, we think the most important is that 1, 18Q4 income base is high, and there are heavy-duty policies of zodiac wine and boutique Maotai, the product structure is better, it is not easy to maintain double-digit growth in 19Q4 income; 2The 18Q4 selling expenses were negative, which is estimated to be related to the channel adjustment. The growth rate of the 18Q4 net profit growth rate was 47%, a high base.The revenue guidance for 2020 will increase by 10%, which is in line with the company’s positioning for “infrastructure year”.Since there is no direct price increase contribution, the 10% growth is expected to be mainly achieved by volume. 2019 is a big year for price increases (grant prices). In 2020, when channel construction is gradually improved and supplements are increased, it is expected that the approval price will be relatively high.Stability, which will be more conducive to increasing the actual demand for the opening rate of Moutai, and will be more favorable for the long-term and medium-term development of Moutai and the industry.  The supply and demand pattern of Moutai has not changed, and the trend of rising prices has not changed.Production of Moutai base liquor in 20194.In the 99 years, the production of base wine has maintained a steady growth since 2015. According to the calculation of base wine, Maotai can maintain an annual increase of 2000-3000 tons in the next 3-5 years.From the demand side, first of all, Moutai still maintains a tightly overlapping price band of 2,000 yuan, and the brand level is stable. Second, the expansion of wealthy people and the change of consumption concepts (drink less and drink good wine) will keep the brand at a moderate priceUnder the circumstances, fully enjoy the bonus of this part of the incremental demand; finally, the in-depth promotion of cultural marketing, so the collection and investment needs of Moutai gradually increased, and conversely strengthened its brand value.The essence of Moutai is the relationship between volume and price. In the medium and long term, we believe that the tight supply and demand of Moutai and the trend of rising volume and price have not changed.  Catalysts for advanced performance: Ex-factory price adjustments Core assumptions Risk: Economic downturn affects overall demand for high-end wines