Haida Group (002311): Internal feed segment grows steadily, and pig business gradually releases profits

Haida Group (002311): Internal feed segment grows steadily, and pig business gradually releases profits

The company released FY19 performance report: FY19 achieved revenue of 476.

8.6 billion with an increase of 13.

12%, net profit attributable to mother 16.

5.1 billion with an increase of 14.

90%, the sales of feed reached about 1230, and accessories increased by 15%; revenue in the fourth quarter alone reached 121.

7.3 billion with an increase of 7.

51%, net profit attributable to mother 2.

3.9 billion increased by 43.

74%.

Demand for aquatic materials is poor, with sales increasing at 10% +, and demand has improved in 20 years.

  The poor growth rate of aquatic feed sales in 19 was mainly due to: 1) most enterprises in the entire feed industry produced pig feed, and this part of the output was switched to poultry feed due to the impact of agricultural swine fever.The competition in the industry has led to a sluggish 19-year market for general water stocks. 2) The main species of special aquatic products, such as raw fish, sea bass, and other storage ponds, have grown less than expected.

Capillary expansion of the pellets affected by the impact has basically kept the sales volume flat; in terms of high-end aquatic products, the gross profit margin of shrimp and high-end puffed fish has remained.

During the downturn in the aquaculture market, the company continued to increase R & D investment, create new products, enhance product power, deepen services, and continuously increase competition barriers, further increasing the market share of aquatic materials.

  Looking at the past 20 years: After more than half a year of fierce competition, general water resources have seen contraction of the front lines of new entrants in recent months. Cross-border competition may continue for 20 years, but the overall layout is improving.

In the meantime, raw fish, sea bass and other species have experienced 19 years of low prices, and after 20 years of supply contraction, the prosperity will be restored.

High-end puffing materials are the company’s key layout direction. The public offering of convertible bonds in 19 years does not exceed 28.

300 million high-end extruded materials projects with more than half of the capital investment will support the steady development of the main industry in the future.

The beneficiary poultry breeding is highly prosperous, the demand for poultry feed is strong, and the quantity and profit are rising.

The swine fever epidemic in Africa has led to a widening pork supply gap, with a 195% decline in pork output and a mortality rate of 21 in the same period.

3%.

Under the effect of consumption substitution, poultry breeding continues to thrive. The company’s comprehensive regional and product line layout advantages, rapid adjustment of strategic layout, conversion of some production capacity, personnel and other resources into poultry and livestock, the sales growth rate of poultry and livestock in 19 years is about 30%.

At the same time, with excellent cost control and efficient operating capabilities, the profit of poultry feed tons has increased, significantly surpassing peers.

The sales volume of pig feed affected by the production capacity of pigs increased significantly, and the marginal improvement in 20 years is in progress.

The number of pigs affected by the African swine fever epidemic has been greatly reduced. According to the data of the Ministry of Agriculture, from the second half of 19, the length of sows / pigs that can be reproduced has decreased by more than 30%.

In this round of cycle, the production capacity is deepened, and the company ‘s production capacity in Guangdong and Guangxi is even more serious, resulting in a significant increase in pig feed sales.

In the past 20 years, after the downstream production capacity resumed, the sales of pig feedstock ushered in an inflection point.

Pig farming is expected to contribute to profit elasticity.

The company produced about 700,000 live pigs in 19 years. The first three quarters were basically in the breakeven. The national average sales price in the fourth quarter was 35.

5 yuan / kg, the average growth rate over the ten-year period, and the overall pig breeding contribution is about 1 billion yuan.

It is estimated that there will be 1.1-1.2 million heads in 20 years, and it is expected to contribute about 500-600 million profit.

The impact of the new crown epidemic on the 20-year performance is relatively limited: the epidemic situation has shortened short-term feed production conditions and certain difficulties in transportation. At present, the company has gradually resumed production and the operating rate has increased.

Since the first quarter is not the peak season for the sale of aquatic materials, the impact on aquatic materials is relatively small; the poultry material is expected to affect 1-2 quarters, and the marginal impact on this profit is relatively limited.

  Profit forecast and investment grade: We expect the company to achieve revenue of 476 in 19-21.

9/631.

6/807.

7 trillion, the same increase of 13.

1% / 32.

4% / 27.9%; net profit attributable to mothers is 16.

5/24.

8/32.

500 million, an increase of 14.

9% / 50.

2% / 31.

2%.

The current corresponding PE is 31.

9X / 21.

2X / 16.

2 times. Considering that the leading feed research and development, procurement, service, and operation will work together to build a moat,北京桑拿体验网 the main feed industry will grow steadily, and pig farming will help to contribute to the flexibility of profit.

Risk reminders: natural disasters and epidemic risks, raw material price fluctuations, product adjustments are less than expected, and pig breeding uncertainty risks